Zika and the New Aedes Control

So, how to deal with the Zika Virus.

The Zika Virus is particularly hard for policy makers. It doesn't affect people equally. Most people who contract the Zika Virus have few symptoms. Some say up to 80% who contract the disease never visit the doctor. For most people it's a little tired achiness for a couple of evenings. For the vast majority a good night's sleep and it's all over.

Aedes Mosquitoes

But for pregnant ladies it can be catastrophic. Zika can halt brain development in their baby causing microcephaly, a deformation in which babies are born with abnormally small brains and heads. To parents-to-be even a small risk of such horrible results are unacceptable no matter the cost.

I wrote a facebook post a few months back on the different ways of controlling mosquitoes. The most recent method involves releasing genetically modified male mosquitoes into the environment. Here's the meat of the earlier article:

But this is probably the future of mosquito control. What they’ve done is genetically modify a male mosquito who carries a gene that means all of the offspring of a mating will die. The female mates and lays the eggs but none survive. The goal will be to introduce enough of the males to outnumber the natural males in the environment, reducing the population of the Zika carrying Aedes mosquito without killing other organisms. And male mosquitoes never bite; only the females can digest blood of victims.

Taming the Double Helix to Fight Zika

What I want to explore here is what economists call the collective action problem. A collective action problem can be summed up as a group with most people thinking everybody should all take a particular action but wanting somebody else go first. In this case it seems most Floridians are OK with releasing the genetically altered mosquitoes:

The latest data, released Friday, suggests 60 percent of Floridians support the use of specially adapted male mosquitoes, which sire offspring that die young, to fight Zika — 40 percent “strongly” favoring it and another 20 percent “somewhat” favoring it. Only 19 percent strongly oppose the idea.

Testing on an Island

But the first US testing area is on Key Haven, a key almost out to Key West. The Florida Keys Mosquito Control Board decided to have a referendum on Key Haven to see what the locals think about releasing the genetically modified male mosquitoes. It's not a binding referendum and the mosquito control board may go ahead with the trial even if the public says no. The referendum will be held in November.

The public saying "no" is what I think will happen. When you combine the people who really hate genetically modified organisms, those who don't see Zika as a big deal due to the very narrow extreme victim class and the ones who think it should be tested elsewhere first I'm thinking it will be rejected quite handily. My over / under estimate is at about 70% rejection.

Killing Mosquitoes Wholesale

So where will that leave us? The Florida Keys Mosquito Control Board will almost have to walk away from the idea of a mosquito control trial if the vote is as lopsided as I think it will be even though technically the referendum is non-binding. And my reading of the situation was that was the intent. They didn't want to do the trial but didn't want the blame for walking away from a way to fight Zika so they decided on a referendum that would fail.

That's unfortunate. With the public attention on Zika the option isn't to do nothing about the mosquitoes. The only options on the table are moving to the genetically modified mosquito for control or stepping up chemical spraying. And stepping up chemical spraying can have its own problems, like wiping out bees in an area. This was part of a massive bee kill after spraying in South Carolina.

Dead Bees After Fogging

That's where the collective action problem comes in. The FDA has approved the genetically modified mosquito release for the trials but they won't approve a larger rollout until the trials have taken place. But what town will be willing to go first to show everything is safe? There's little incentive to be first. I'm not sure how they'll solve that problem.